Guarini Institute Welcomes John Delury for a Talk on North Korea
On February 7, the Guarini Institute for Public Affairs hosted a lecture entitled “North Korea: The Next Front?” given by American East Asia scholar, Professor John Delury. Professor Delury evaluated North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s plan for the coming year and recommended proactive global measures to avoid worst-case scenarios.
The event was moderated by Professor Enrico Fardella, Associate Director of the Guarini Institute. Fardella is a visiting professor at JCU and an associate professor at the University of Naples “L’Orientale,” specializing in the history of Chinese foreign policy, and China’s relations with the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East from the Cold War to the present. His Excellency Seong-ho Lee, Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to Italy, was present in the audience and participated in the Q&A that followed Professor Delury’s presentation.
The event began with a few remarks from John Cabot University President Franco Pavoncello, followed by Professor Fardella introducing Professor Delury and his extensive work as one of America’s top experts in the field of East Asia. Professor Delury, who is residing in Italy for the 2023-2024 academic year, is the American Academy in Rome’s inaugural Tsao Fellow in China Studies. On leave from Seoul’s Yonsei University where he teaches, Professor Delury has almost a decade of experience teaching history and international studies, with a focus on the Korean peninsula’s affairs.
Professor Delury has contributed a great deal of writing on the Korean peninsula’s issues to publications like The New Statesman, Asian Survey, Foreign Affairs, and Foreign Policy. Agents of Subversion: The Fate of John T. Downey and the CIA’s Covert War in China, his most recent book, was released by Cornell University Press in 2022. He earned his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. in History from Yale University.
Professor Delury addressed the concerning surge in North Korean aggression, highlighting the disruption caused by international actions in the traditionally insular state of North Korea. He delved into the evolving demeanor of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, noting the escalation in his confrontational stance through a series of military tests and drills conducted in the West Sea.
Professor Delury began his lecture by drawing on the recent developments recorded by North Korean specialists Bob Carlin and Siegfried Hecker. Carlin spent decades as a top intelligence specialist at the U.S. State Department, dedicating his entire adult life to analyzing and dissecting North Korean policy. Hecker is a nuclear physicist and specialist regarding international dialogue on nuclear weapons.
Within the past month, Carlin and Hecker caused a media frenzy after posting their findings concerning recent military actions conducted by North Korea in a paper on 38 North, a website that analyzes the country’s internal and external affairs. Professor Delury synthesized the article into two premises and one implication, with the latter garnering the most attention.
The first premise discussed was the significant shift in North Korea’s policy towards the United States, a cornerstone of its grand strategy. The old strategy, which lasted roughly from 1990 to 2016, was centered around improving relations with the U.S. The North Korean administration looked to normalize relations with Washington, reaching its conclusion at the Singapore Summit in 2016.
After decades of positive diplomatic exchange, a turning point was reached in 2019 with the failure of the Hanoi Summit. —a major disappointment compared to its most recent predecessor. The downfall of the relationship was triggered by an apparent lack of interest and sincerity demonstrated by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Even after the introduction of the current Biden administration, Kim Jong Un continued to sour relations between the U.S. and North Korea and strengthen relations with China and Russia. Claiming the United States maintains a “hostile policy,” Kim Jong Un looks to prepare for “long-term confrontation with U.S. imperialists.”
The second premise explored by Professor Delury is the radical transformation in North Korea’s approach towards South Korea, wherein formerly peaceful symbols of cooperation and political reconciliation have been replaced with messages of outright severance. Kim Jong Un has even gone to the extent of declaring military readiness to subjugate the entire territory of South Korea and has hinted at potential annexation in the event of war.
This major shift in the balance of inter-Korean relations leaves the world watching with one primary implication—North Korea is preparing for the advent of war with the U.S. and its allies. Although the manner of war was not specified, South Korea, as delineated by Kim Jong Un, is its prime target.
The presentation concluded on a far more optimistic note. Despite the dismal approach to increasing hostile inter-Korean relations, Professor Delury left room for advancing U.S.-North Korea relations. Washington has not completely shut out Pyongyang nor does it have intention to. There is leverage in the playing field that the U.S. can capitalize on, namely sanctions relief and stimulation to the North Korean economy.
(Joan Cottingham)
