The 2024 Irish General Elections and Their Global Consequences with Dr. Kathryn Simpson
On February 5th, 2025, John Cabot University hosted Dr. Kathryn Simpson, an associate professor of politics and economics of the EU, and director of research at Keele Business School in the UK. The title of the talk was “The Irish General Election and the Future of Ireland: Results, Consequences and Challenges.” The event was co-sponsored by the Department of Politics and International Affairs, the Guarini Institute and the M.A. in International Affairs.
The first part of the event was dedicated to an in-depth analysis of the Irish General election that took place in November 2024. Dr. Simpson focused on the major parties involved, their polices, and the key themes of the campaign. She began with an overview of the Irish political system, including the consequences of the Proportional Representation Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV) Electoral System used in Ireland, and how it leads to a multiparty system. After this general overview, Dr. Simpson focused on the differences between the major parties competing in the election: Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, the Labour Party and the Green Party.
In the second part of the lecture, the focus was on public opinion data and the aggregate of polls leading up to the election. The polls showed that the highest estimated support was in favor of Fianna Fáil with 20-23%, whereas the least favored was the Green Party with barely 4% of support. These estimates turned out to be correct, with Fianna Fáil obtaining 48 seats in parliament, with a share of “first preference vote” equal to 21.9%.
In the third part of her lecture, Dr. Simpson analyzed the main issues that were featured in the electoral campaign and discussed the priorities of the new government. The housing crisis in the Republic of Ireland was the most pressing issue, identified by 63% of the electorate, followed by the cost of living (39%), and health (32%).
The outcome of the election led to a coalition government composed of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Regional Independent Group. The Taoiseach, (which stands for “prime minister” in the Irish language), is Micheál Martin from Fianna Fáil, and the role of Tánaiste, (“deputy”) is Simon Harris from Fine Gael. This is the second time Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael — Ireland’s two dominant centrist political parties — have participated in the same government.
Dr. Simpson’s presentation was followed by a discussion with the event moderator, Dr. Nicholas Startin, associate professor in the Department of Politics and International Affairs at John Cabot University. Questions asked in this segment were wide-ranging on issues such as: how Ireland has largely evaded the populist tide seen elsewhere in the West; explanations for the decline in support for both Sinn Féin and the Greens in the election; the impact of the housing crisis and the cost of living as issues in the campaign; the background for the Irish government’s support of a Palestinian State. The Q&A with the audience included a discussion on the potential impact of the Trump Presidency for Ireland, both economically and politically.
In conclusion, Dr. Simpson raised some reflections on the 2024 Irish general election and the future of Irish politics. She discussed the possibility of an alternative to the status quo in Ireland, stating that there is no alternative government since the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael alliance is strong.
Dr. Simpson also raised the question of whether Ireland defies recent trends in Europe and rejects anti-establishment populism and political radicalism. She came to the conclusion that, from an electoral perspective, right-wing populism has failed thus far. One reason for this is the long-standing history of emigration, solidarity, and sympathy for foreigners that still prevails on the island, as there are no successful right-wing populist movements in Ireland to this day.
(Vittoria Caroli)
