Insights on the 2025 German Elections with Former Ambassador Pier Francesco Zazo
On February 24, 2025, JCU’s Guarini Institute for Public Affairs hosted an event dedicated to a discussion of the recent German elections and their impact on EU-Transatlantic Relations. Guest speaker and former Italian Ambassador to Ukraine, Pier Francesco Zazo, shared his views on the implications of the elections and the shifting political landscape in Germany.
The Director of the Guarini Institute for Public Affairs, Professor Federigo Argentieri, kicked off the event with a brief overview of Germany’s political system. Professor Argentieri provided historical context on the development and the political divide in Germany after WWII. The country was split into two Germanies: the German Democratic Republic (GDR), called West Germany, and the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), or East Germany. While West Germany’s party system developed into a pluralistic democracy with two dominant parties — the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), alongside the Free Democratic Party (FDP) — East Germany had a multiparty system with all parties falling under the control of the Socialist Unity Party. Professor Argentieri concluded his introduction with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, which led to negotiations with the Soviet Union, Germany’s reunification, and its integration into NATO and the European Union.
The 2025 German Elections and Their Impact
Ambassador Zazo highlighted how the recent elections mark a major shift in German politics. The center-right force of the CDU/CSU alliance, also referred to as Union Party, won the largest share of votes (28.5%) by advocating for moderate policies and a more restrictive stance on immigration. The most striking development, however, was the historic rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which came in second, signaling “a sovereigntist push and a populist shift,” as Zazo mentioned. AfD’s anti-liberal, anti-European stance, and even endorsements from influential personalities like Elon Musk, raise concerns about the future of Germany’s democratic stability.
The center-left SPD suffered a major defeat (obtaining 16,4%) largely due to the current economic difficulties in Germany and the unpopularity of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Green Party has been losing its influence in Germany, as economic concerns overshadowed environmental priorities. The FDP, despite its pro-business stance, failed to surpass the 5% threshold necessary to hold seats in parliament. Meanwhile, the Left Party has remained appealing to young voters through its emphasis on social programs.
The Ukrainian Question and Transatlantic Relations
There are several critical challenges that Germany is facing in the wake of the election: a shift toward more restrictive measures in immigration policy, economic uncertainty after six years of uninterrupted economic growth, aversion to public debt, reliance on Russian gas imports, and hesitation in military aid to Ukraine. Zazo emphasized that despite the latter, Germany remains one of the primary donors to Ukraine. He also touched on evolving transatlantic dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy. Trump’s negotiations on peace in Ukraine, being conducted without the involvement of the European Union and Ukraine itself, suggest a significant shift away from U.S. commitment to European security. Additionally, with Trump’s push for NATO members to contribute 5% of their GDP (Gross domestic product) to defense, Germany, currently at 2%, may face additional pressure.
With the likely election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor, Germany’s foreign policy priorities may include defense and security cooperation. Merz’s commitment to a strong Europe shown during the electoral campaign, suggests a renewed effort to strengthen alliances. Additionally, enhanced relations with the UK could further bolster Germany’s geopolitical stance.
Germany’s recent election results reflect political and economic tensions, with significant consequences for European stability and transatlantic relations. The rise of populism, economic uncertainty, and shifting alliances will define Germany’s role in the coming years. With Putin seeking to remove sanctions, demilitarize Ukraine, and solidify control over occupied territories, the Russia-Ukraine war continues to test European unity.
(Tetiana Kozachanska)
